I'd take buy out, and wouldn't sniff at production.Interesting...

I'd take buy out, and wouldn't sniff at production.

Interesting article here

https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/allana-potash-corp-agrees-to-137-million-takeover-bid-from-israel-chemicals

Allana bought out for approx $200m AUD in 2015 because of the dilution impact of finding approximately the same capex we might need with approx $10m in their kitty. That's 4x our current market cap

hell, add 10% for inflation and that's another half of our market cap!!!

They have about 20% of the resource we believe we have but high grade, maybe twice at a glance. Lehman maths suggests they have then 40% of ours. So 2.5x ours to reflect

Add the fact that this transaction was in 2015, a true lull in potash pricing. We're seeing a peak, and it's looking less like a flash in the pan

Feels like with a few more boxes being ticked here (DFS, twin holes in Project 2, etc) should see this having the potential for buyout. A good few million dollars funding needed to get there but it feels like anything under $250m (5x) would be daylight robbery, but that if the strategy is to sell in 12 months you could easily see higher (accepting capital raise and dilution of maybe 15% at a guess)

$500m / 10x is huge, but if all ducks align it really isn't silly, and this company example would show it makes some sense