7.5c SP -> $1.11 SP Target (Largest Potash Deposit in West-Europe) $30M MC, page-519

The below is from the recent presentation using August 2021 prices as projected by Argus research,

Note my previous posts, discussing how its peculiar that Dr Chris Gilchrist was mentioning in recent presentations a $350-$400 range for the next decade and beyond, while in Q121 he was mentioning $300, this new Argus research release must be why.

For context on Argus, they are commonly used by brokers for their potash commodity macro research, and have been discussed in the Cenkos broker report on SHP.

For 2025-2030, they are expecting ~$360US/t average.

For 2030-2035, they are expecting a $425US/t average.

Now lets include the SHP cenkos price table for potash plug ins for the starter project Ohmgebirge:

For 2025-2030 / 2030-2035 projecte potash prices for the Omgebirge project (extending 2030-2035 prices into the LOM of 40 years = 5 years $360/t assumption, 35 years $425US/t)

The NPV is in USD ~$1462M / Or in AUD $1958M (~$2 Billion in NPV) for the starter project alone at a project weighted potash projection of $416/t).. remember, this is only 1 of 4 of their projects, and the smallest.

Thats ignoring the fact that the potash price is in upward trajectory and will likely continue for the following decades,

Although that would give us a per share price for Omgebirge of at time of Scoping Study read out of $0.67c per share, as the below Cenkos senstitivty analysis shows.

Running the numbers is just intimidating, the sheer size of what we might be holding here.

Not financial advice, just some saturday night musings, but hope it helps the future outlook metrics rather than the sandbagged metrics used by Cenkos with a $300 plug in ($20 less than BHPs already sand bagged studies that are at $320)

GLTAH!





* 40% increase of MOP price to the base case of $300/t = $420/t, not exactly $416/t as the above calcs, but close enough to be relevant.