SHP 0.00% 2.4¢ south harz potash ltd

I share the same question, this project looks very attractive,...

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    I share the same question, this project looks very attractive, but I cannot wrap my head around why the mining licenses for such a huge resources in a favourable jurisdiction fell into the hands of a small Australian company.

    Though I can't provide an answer directly to that question, I find it interesting that holders praise the $500m spent on drilling programs and the gathering resource data (though it does reinforce the potential this proejct may have). The extensive drilling programs undertaken the latter half of the 1900s are all non JORC compliant. Only in 2019 were these upgraded to inferred resources (which is still the lowest level of confidence estimates for grade, size, and quaintity out of all the resource classifications).

    From my limited reading, the company has a lot of mining tenements with inferred resource classifications. The annoucement for the Ohmgebirge drilling just demonstrates how expensive it is to upgrade these resources to the indicated category required for the pre-feasibility study. Taking this further to develop a definitive feasibility study and the BFS will likely require a considerable portion of measured resource classifications which one again will require more time, data, drilling and money. Expect equity capital to be used to fund these activites which will increase SOI and decrease the share price targets put out by many brokers (I believe these price targets are very high because they assume the project becomes fully operational whilst leaving the current SOI constant; correct me if I am wrong).

    Once the DFS and BFS are made, come around the Final Investment Decision which will add financing risks. Then come forth construction and development which adds another level of risk, and then commissioning and operational readiness. And add navigating the regulatory framework on top of this. I believe BHP Jansen mine will not reach name plant until 2027 despite nearly 2 decades of work. The time value of money along with the equity needed to advance the project an various risks along the way make for an interesting case. These facotrs will likely significant reduce broker price targets. And note, this is just for one mining tenenment, expect similar processes to be required for all the other tenements.

    All I am finding attractive about the project now is its potential size and its location to markets in demand as well as the favourable exposure to potash and food security. There is still a lot of uncertainty as well as funding needed to take this project anywhere near construction let alone a DFS and BFS.

    I am not down ramping, just sharing my thoughts and research.
    Last edited by Freeman02: 30/10/21
 
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