"Severely lower". History doesnt reflect Baltic Sea MOP Prices...

"Severely lower". History doesnt reflect Baltic Sea MOP Prices displaying an average of of $100 US premium over Vancouver prices. Nor do any of the other fertilizer categories show a premium in Baltic Sea versus Vancouver. Though I'm not expert in potash pricing, it seems a little off why Argus forecast for Baltic Sea Prices is much higher than their forceast for Vancouver. I'm going to remain on the lower end as assume that Baltic Sea Prices will show little to no premium over Vancouver prices.

There essentially both the same product witht the same classification with Vancouver prices having more data behind it:


Here is some historical prices. The main reason I think prices have premiums is their relative location to major supply. There is major supply in Europe and the US. You can see both Vancouver and Baltic prices pretty much trade in line with each other. At most, a $20 differential at some times.

Here is a more recent one from AMIS Market Monitor:


My question is given historically both prices trade in line pretty much for the last decade and a half. Why would the Baltic Sea price suddenly trade $100 premium (this is verging on SOP levels of premium). Sanctions on Belaruski at most will provide shorter term price pressures upwards but this cannot be relied upon to maintain a premium with Belgium already pushing to cut down the severity of the sanctions, not that the existing sanctions were that restrictive anyway.