if you honestly think you can forecast macro supply demand for...

if you honestly think you can forecast macro supply demand for commodities, then good luck to you... last december, no one knew that IO would double in price in 2016... not me, not you, not the guys from goldmans or UBS or deutsche, its simply not possible for even the most connected people to predict.

and to karasco58: its great that FMG reduced costs, but even a tulip farmer who reduces costs and increases supply still makes bugger all when the price of tulips crashes... if IO was still $35 a tonne, FMG would still be <$2... probably even <$1... a company that is barely profitable would be priced like a company that is barely profitable... we'd still be talking about the gearing and asset sales etc...

anyway, im just arguing for the sake of arguing... ive been long FMG since the $4's, with shorts and trades all the way up... more than happy to see IO at $200 and FMG at $20 next year if thats whats going to happen :) but right now, there is no way of telling if IO would get that high... follow the trend...