Hi Fyffee,
See the article below which has already been posted, the drive for share price growth come approval is the cash about to flow to Neuren from having a commercial asset, they are suggesting $86m 2023, I expect to see more of these come out after potential approval.
Neu has $40m on hand, and in recent presentation said they expect to receive $104m AUD from Acadia + double digit royalties on any sales.
Using $100m revenue to flow 2023 if approved I get EPS of .79 and a P/E ratio today of 9.7
For example the long term average P/E ratio for S&P 500 is 16 x.
Neu if approved will get $104m + royalties from Acadia 2023, in addition what we are also expecting is upfront $ for ROW perhaps at least $30-$40m AUD and in 2023 potentially we could see a deal for NZ-2591 by Sept-Dec.
So Neu likely will be earning revenues 2023 of $150m +, using this revenue this would give Neu today EPS 1.19 and P/E ratio 6.4
In my view from my research Neu conservatively should be using, particularly if de risked March 12th at least a P/E ratio of 25-30 (not 6.4) x 1.19 EPS = $30-$35 p/sh is really not unrealistic!
So currently at 6.4 P/E ratio a EPS 1.19 there is a lot of upside to come, as per below link that is one company example of how to see the potential upside here.
If we get approved for Trof March 12th, seems 99.9% chance now, then focus of approvals directly shifts to NZ-2591 phase 2 trials should these be positive H2 2023, then we could potentially expect our revenue to add a large upfront for some type of licensing deal.
So whilst a bit to play out here NEU by years end could have $200m AUD in cash on hand and what ever results of NZ-2591 will bolster to its cash pile.
Given this is the type of metrics used to value companies and the large amount of revenue to come to Neu if approved March 12th, I expect there to be a hell of a lot of interest in this stock if approved March 12th.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj8iZugvcX9AhWZZd4KHftfBrYQxfQBKAB6BAgHEAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fsimplywall.st%2Fstocks%2Fau%2Fpharmaceuticals-biotech%2Fasx-neu%2Fneuren-pharmaceuticals-shares%2Fnews%2Fthis-just-in-analysts-are-boosting-their-neuren-pharmaceutic&usg=AOvVaw3wirOpTYKo1TzFDkR5E6LY
(20min delay)