$7 party, page-34

Put it this way. The current price is $5.80 factors in a profit growth rate of 45% YOY for 10 years and the exit rate of 3%.

If you put share price into value thesis, accounting for growth on all seasons, then you're looking at 50% - 80% fall from here. This is what the model shows for now.

This hit the market in the middle of pandemic just so that its inflated IPO value looks good on low discount rate environment. Macquarie was and is a significant backer of this. And guess who was the underwriter? It was Macquarie again with other underwriters. I wonder if this has in interest issue? Macquarie owned 76% and upon IPO they reduced their stake to 30%. They did well. Most of they money from the IPO went to existing shareholders, and only $25 went to reduce debt. NUIX raised $950 ish million from IPO for godsake.

Now lets looks at probability. The chances of int-rate going up in next 10 years is super high. The chance of other competitors eating their revenues in 10 years is super-super high. Their margin degradation seems imminent of price revision happen due to competition. The CAPEX needed to morph new products is super likely. Sales & Distribution expenses going much higher from here is also very high if labour markets and cross country expenses increase. This company is highly likely to book-in huge G&A expenses this FY, this is from prospectus.

The company has already guided that its Nuix Discover and Nuix Investigate may experience price competition, hence margin degradation.

I'm definitely in no rush and not buying into this hype machine.