BRK

4.55%

1.1¢ brookside energy limited

7 well production prediction, page-9

First 9 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
alexei ii

3,110 Posts.

5925

17/04/22

13:58

Post #: 60887168
Share

Originally posted by Lonewolf#1: ↑

There was a time when CE1 jumped from where BRK is now to 20c Then there is another ASX code MAY that also jumped from where BRK is now to at one stage 20c also which happed in March this year. BRK's time will come, in the meantime I'm happy just passing time by reducing the amount of CGT that I'll have to pay once time does come for me to sell

Expand

may is in a league of its own. totally different value proposition to this. totally different risk profile to this.

Originally posted by alexei ii: ↑

i did a dcf and assumed the decline curve would be the same for all three Rangers, Jewell and Flames. For illustrative purposes mainly.

Using $100 USD WTI, reducing to $60 at year 3, $4 gas constant, and ignoring NGL's, discount rate of 5%, capex of $10M/well and opex of $0.5m/well per annum with terminal value of $10M, i get todays value of the FCF of $90M per well, at 80% WI and $45M per well 40% WI. This lines up v roughly (+/-30%) with @danpech cash flow prediction, but i did not do it on a month by month basis, im just roughing it in. Add these DCF's up and I get $225M = 3 x MC. It was on this basis, i said our MC will be 3 x what ist is now, at least, once the decline curves for Rangers and Flames are established and assuming they are in line with expectations.

Importantly, this does not attribute value to the ground that has not yet been drilled/developed. I think theres about 10 wells for each of the lease areas, (30 altogether).

To get prospective/indicative value out of this, what you can do, is multiply the $225M x 10 (3 ish wells in each plot), and this will tell you what a cash rich company can do with this acreage, if they were to get their hands on it. To elaborate on this, the proposition is that for a capital outlay of approx $100M over say 6 months, someone could end up with 10 wells potentially worth $2.25B. But someone has to factor in some risks, being price, success/flow rates and operational issues. So you can see how the value proposition here for RBK is to farm out equity for the HBP ground in return for a free carried drillblitz. This is the game. You can see thats what has happened in the past, they "syndicate" the wells to ride these price waves and a whole bunch of people end up with dribs and drabs of each well. They need to strike while the price is hot.

So success in each of the three wells they have now drilled is critical for attracting these types of deals.

Expand

i should have stated the $ I quoted are in USD...so the "value" in AUD should be 4 x current MC.

BRK Price at posting: 2.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

NVU

Nanoveu surges 10% after benchmark testing for new AI chip begins

SWP

Swoop lobs $18M offer at microcap telecom Vonex – in which it holds 19.9%

Week 42 Wrap: HotCopper's top picks; new ASX 200 record; world yawns at war

IRX

InhaleRX snags $38.5M in funding from VC biotech funder Clendon

What's causing the cost-of-living crisis, and how to navigate it

SNX

Sierra Nevada raises $2M for silver exploration at Blackhawk

TLG

Talga Group wins key permit for flagship graphite mine in Sweden

M4M

Macro, Norden set up transport solutions initiative for West Pilbara

MTH

Mithril's drilling in Mexico picks up silver at 997g/t, gold at 28g/t

MKT

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

There are more pages in this discussion • 2 more messages in this thread...

First 9 Last

Add BRK (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 1.1¢		Change -0.001(4.55%)		Mkt cap ! $50.11M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.1¢	1.1¢	1.0¢	$23.05K	2.183M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
44	25833994	1.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.1¢	54460586	48

Last trade - 13.57pm 15/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

BRK (ASX) Chart

Day chart unavailable

7 well production prediction, page-9

Nanoveu surges 10% after benchmark testing for new AI chip begins

Swoop lobs $18M offer at microcap telecom Vonex – in which it holds 19.9%

Week 42 Wrap: HotCopper's top picks; new ASX 200 record; world yawns at war

InhaleRX snags $38.5M in funding from VC biotech funder Clendon

What's causing the cost-of-living crisis, and how to navigate it

Sierra Nevada raises $2M for silver exploration at Blackhawk

Talga Group wins key permit for flagship graphite mine in Sweden

Macro, Norden set up transport solutions initiative for West Pilbara

Mithril's drilling in Mexico picks up silver at 997g/t, gold at 28g/t

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

7 well production prediction, page-9

Top Stories

Nanoveu surges 10% after benchmark testing for new AI chip begins

Swoop lobs $18M offer at microcap telecom Vonex – in which it holds 19.9%

Week 42 Wrap: HotCopper's top picks; new ASX 200 record; world yawns at war

InhaleRX snags $38.5M in funding from VC biotech funder Clendon

What's causing the cost-of-living crisis, and how to navigate it

Sierra Nevada raises $2M for silver exploration at Blackhawk

Talga Group wins key permit for flagship graphite mine in Sweden

Macro, Norden set up transport solutions initiative for West Pilbara

Mithril's drilling in Mexico picks up silver at 997g/t, gold at 28g/t

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News