$7, page-3

I think it should because it was worth more than $7 before the defeated court case was announced

Correct, because the subsequent deterioration in EPS had already been priced in at that point. Plus:

a) The market is now ~17.5% higher

b) FUMA has marginally increased (net of the ADG acquisition and of the Ord Minnett disposal)

c) Vertical integration has not been abolished

d) Expected remediation costs have been announced (far less uncertainty on that figure now)

e) IOOF now have almost free optionality as to whether the ANZ deal will go ahead or not (and at what price)

f) There is still a 9.5% short interest that needs to get covered; that is ~33.5m shares, or ~17x the daily trading volume

Looking at the current level of underlying EPS and market PEs, a reasonable fair value range is probably 7.50$-8.50$ at this stage; but, given the amount of shorts that need to get covered, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of an overshoot to the upside in the next few weeks, especially if the ANZ P&I acquisition does go through.