Looks to me like more than half of cash from the April CR will...

Looks to me like more than half of cash from the April CR will be gone by end July.

$210m of one-off cash costs to implement cost savings initiatives

$155m additional net operating cash losses during transition phase

That assumes the business reaches a level of revenue that covers the new shrunken monthly cost base of $65m.

It might make losses for considerably longer - that would certainly be the case if there is a another serious Covid wave.

I think it would be sensible at this stage to expect the restructured business in post-Covid times to perhaps generate half as much profit as the 2019 business. It will benefit from market share gains as many small operators collapse, so let's say NPAT goes to 60% of the pre-Covid profit level. I'd also expect the market to apply a lower multiple to earnings given the likelihood of lower growth and a higher discount for risk. With twice as many shares on issue, such metrics would generate a market cap a bit more than half the current - so maybe a share price of $12 including $1.50 cash per share left over from the $700m raise.

In my opinion the current mkt cap is ludicrous. I cant see how the share price wont fall back at least to $14. But there are far more ludicrous things going on in markets so I could be very wrong.

Disclosure : I went short this morning