Good evening Fellow Travellers.
Tomorrow should provide a very interesting trading day {in context with what happens overnight on the Dow & the
POO}. If we break/close on 10c+ on good volume then significant news must be on the way one would imagine.
That would be 4? trading days straight where we've finished on a high v previous close?
Kenya would have to be the
short-priced favourite you would think.
Maybe an interim update on results/progress of FAN1 analysis.?
It has been 10 weeks since that discovery so maybe some "small" amount of good news could be released on that well.
Lastly, maybe a small % sell-down in 1 or both FAN1 SNE wells even at this early juncture. CN did mention {although
I am sure she was hinting more in the medium-longer term} that part of future funding would come, amongst other
things, from the "sell down of assets". If the SP keeps rising, then if in fact an announcement is pending, it can only
be good news and in context of FAR's present portfolio, this is the only potential near term "asset" that I can identify.
At only a small chance, I still wouldn't discount it at this stage. It would make sense at some stage to raise $ again
whilst appraisal is underway {but that would still be 6-9 months away minimum}. Best to be cashed up prior to
appraisal results-good insurance and management. So maybe a theory before it's time.
If I may indulge in perhaps a little Hubris around this "silly" season, in re-iterating my case for FAR going
forward, and just once, be a little less conservative.
1. The geology and the "play" first & foremost. On an optimistic note from a "gut feel" and a splash of
hubris thrown in, Senegal looks to have the potential to eclipse Jubilee. I feel we could have a potential
"whopper" on our hands here. Deeply buried Turonian source rocks with these types of reservoirs offer
the opportunity to capture volumes of oil in the Billions.
It looks at this early stage that FAR have
managed to once again "unlock" the potential of this play. Kosmos {being one of the original participants in the
Jubilee discovery} are in their "2nd innings" so to speak trying to unlock the same play again to the north of
our block. All these events have now conspired to make this "play" one of the most sought after along the
West African Atlantic Margin. From what I have seen post FAN1 & SNE discovery, many companies are either
trying to get acreage that mirrors this play along the margin or are speeding up plans to explore it. They have
all mentioned the FAN1 & SNE discoveries in their releases.
The oil migration theory has been proven correct at SNE and there is no reason to doubt that the other buried
hills prospects along the shelf are filled from the same source rock. . We should have the "traps" and
"reservoirs" to capture that oil. If por/perm/sf etc is very good for SNE then there is no reason
to doubt either that the remaining Albian Sandstone reservoirs in the buried hills prospects display similar
characteristics. They are of the same age, geology, source and sediment deposition over time after all.
I'm not willing to speculate on FAN1/Beer as yet because of the apparent lack of definitive information v SNE.
But if 2C comes up trumps for FAN1 also, then there is no reason to discount FARJOY's view that all the Fan
complexes contain 6Bboo. We will probably, as stated by FAR,have to do an appraisal on FAN1 to unlock
it's potential relative to SNE. However, it is obvious that at this depth, the Beer Sands are closer to the source
kitchen. The stacked fans above it remain the closest "traps" before oil can migrate further up onto the Shelf.
If the Turonian source has managed to travel to the stacked fans above it, then 16km further on to deposit 300m+
barrels at SNE, the mind boggles as to what it could have left in the closer/thicker & hopefully porous Beer Sands.
FARJOY'S 10% holding is fact. To know that He was primarily interested in a blocking stake so early in the
piece reveals that communication was "fluid" to say the least, prior to the discovery at
FAN1 being announced. As stated, he is not a trader. 10% did not come about by chance.
I like his reference to climactic studies around that region after the 2 continents had separated.
Anoxic conditions were present as a result of low sea levels
and tropical climate. This would have aided the environment we now find ourselves in some 50million
years later and at higher sea levels {greater depths}.
FARJOY ; " Against this is the geomorphological fact that deltas and river systems are developed under erosional forces by cyclical sedimentation which is reasonably predictable, with similar grain size and shape. A good analogue today would be the Bangladesh delta systems, initially snow fed with movement of bedload and high rainfall intensivities shifting sediment into the deltas. When sand is dredged to maintain the channels, it is not dissimilar to the premier oil sands likely to have been found at Beer. " " Similar grain size & shape"--hence his confidence in good porosity.
If you get a chance, take a look at the at the massive river/tributary system that
flows through Senegal directly in the path of the slope play.
Senegal as a country in Africa at least has a stable democracy of 196 years, is a peaceful country, has
very good fiscal terms {I think the tax rate is 25% there v 30+% in other jurisdictions} and has a President
who is an ex petroleum geologist. This cannot be underplayed--He would at least understand the industry
and be cognisant of the need to attract capital to the country under the best fiscal terms. They should
do all they can to expedite speedy development of any discoveries. I think he would also understand not
to change the goal posts as say Ghana has done with their respective CGT applied after the sale of the
Jubilee stake.
Anyway, it's been an interesting year to say the least. Thanks for some great posts and may 2015 be a year when
FAR brings home some of that bacon. Merry Xmas.
GLTAH
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