Great post Mr Moon....although assuming we get a lift in the SPID of a point or more and our trial is indeed accepted by the FDA, I think you will find your $100M valuation on our BTcP asset is a gross under-estimate.
Because all competitor medicines for BTcP have now been pulled off the shelf because of their difficult administrative issues (fentanyl-based products), there is basically a $2Billion USD addressable market just waiting to be served. IHL-211 would be a welcome solution for the problem and would be prescribed widely very quickly.
There is a rough estimate in biotech that your asset is worth about 20-50x your annual revenue. So even if we were to pick up 1/10th of that addressable market in year 1 or $200M USD that would obviously imply an asset valuation in the billions, not $100M.
I think 80cents will be a distant memory, perhaps $8 might be more like it! 80cents may be the price leading up to a final readout as the market starts to get excited about the potential of this trial.
One thing I am very sure of, we are sitting here at the start of the journey, the boring journey of red tape and regulatory submissions has all been completed and we are about to start the newsworthy phase with patients enrolled and dosed, interim results readout etc. This is as attractive an entry point as you will get.
Not investment advice but I have put my money where my mouth is. GLTAH
ps anyone who hasnt watched that Netflix series "Painkillers" really should. There is another one Pain Hustlers i think that specifically deals with BTcP. They are both quite disturbing but you will be placing an order for IRX the next morning after watching them!
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