I did some calculations tonight after analysing today's course of sales, which led me to conclude that at least 85% of today's selling volume was institutions selling or short sellers entering the market.
I sorted the full course of sales (14,362 trades) into highest volume trades to lowest volume trades and got the sum of trades greater than 20,150 shares.
Why 20,150 shares you ask....well I had to pick a threshold that defined "institutional seller or short seller".
Based on the most generous allocation in the float "Policyholder Offer Applicants who pre-registered", applications for over $14,000 worth of stock received $8,710 + 6.50% of their application. I decided that anyone who applied for $500,000 of shares was probably not a mum and dad investor. A $500,000 fully paid upfront application got you 20,150 shares in the float. Therefore any trade above 20,150 in the course of sales today had to come from an applicant who applied for at least $500k worth. I concluded these applicants were most likely institutions.
Of course short sellers were not part of the initial allocation and if they were able to borrow sufficient numbers of shares they could also be responsible for trades of greater than 20,150.
Of today's total volume of 450,943,682 shares traded, 381,641,832 shares were traded in parcels of 20,150 or greater. That's 85% of the total volume traded!
It should be noted that there were certainly other sell orders of greater than 20,150 shares that were not visible in the course of sales and therefore not included in my calculations. This is because if a large sell order is traded into multiple small buy orders, the course of sales records the transactions as multiple small orders. Therefore the 85% number I am reporting is an "at least" figure. It is likely to be significantly higher than that!
So what happened today?
It seems institutional buyers were happy to take the tiny premium above the $2.15 price they paid for their shares. Given that today's average price was $2.21, they were happy with their 2.91% profit and were quick to realise it.
Alternatively, today saw the entry of massive amounts of short selling buy traders who see the stock as over valued.
What do you all think?
Cheers
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