If MWD and mud log and mud tanks look good, then that suggests the presence of oil within the target zone. The next question is how many feet of pay exist in the well. When they take samples of the reservoir rock from the wall of the well, they can bring that rock to surface and determine whether it appears to have good permeability and porosity. After all of those factors have been derisked, then casing, perforating, and testing the well is a much lower risk activity. Chances of success improve greatly at each step along the way (assuming that each step taken thus far is favorable). The big question at the moment is whether the mud logs and the MWD data are favorable? We'll know soon enough.
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