You might find helpful this 1st post...

You might find helpful this 1st post
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/51756029/single
(on the Thread EFFECT on SP post SPUD DATE Anns)
in revising your expectation of a substantial increase in the the current SP to a TP of 8c.

The 1st "table"
(data of which I've already explained in a later post on that Thread as possibly difficult to interpret because of the way I typed it out for the Post) )
spells out the progressive increases in SOI levels over the last 4 years,
with resultant lower MC's (the last figure, in $m, on each of lines 1,2,3, & 5 i.e. 277, 148, 166 & 133 last Friday 12th Mar.) but which has now doubled in 2 days.
I have also replied to tell another poster recently - on another thread - that his chart - illustrating a L/Term down trendline which he/she too expected to shortly break out upward substantially - IMO was irrelevant for the reason that SOI had substantially increased over the last 5 years his chart covered.
Thus, and again IMO - your & his chart would only be relevant if the SOI had REMAINED the same for such 5 years.

So, given drilling success in the next few weeks, around $400m+ MC and a corresponding SP of around 3.3c+might prove to be conservative Guata.