Your statement - "Our best chance is to get a Farminee to cover the previous seismic cost of ~$7 mill and a commitment to drill Charlie and Bravo with us retaining 25% or 550 mmbls of the 2.2 bbls."
From the Sept 18 presentation - Icewine* : Large Conventional Prospect Portfolio – 1.75 Billion Barrels Oil Net to 88E#
Based on this my guess is a 25% chance of success of maybe earning 20-25 per share best case scenario
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