88E Charts, page-189

I wonder if any fundamentals divined from the announcement of FO particulars will trump any technical indicators. Probably!

I also wonder if the 'market' actually has a nuanced understanding of what a good FO looks like vs a not so good FO? Perhaps one could argue that any FO that provides funds at less dilution than would a CR at 1.3 cps (ie about 25% discount to market price) is a deal that is better than status quo. (Noting obviously, that FO dilutes differently to CR). Hence maybe a 1.3 cps valued deal is the threshold of what constitutes 'good'. Which IMO is a pretty low bar as I am expecting a FO to be markedly above that line. Otherwise, why bother! But I suspect that the three 'headline factors' that will drive near term market sentiment and perhaps market valuation, will be:

1. the perceived necessity for the company to raise funds prior to the next targeted drilling event;
2. the amount of 'promote' that we receive in the transaction; and
3. the options baked into the FO agreement.

Probably in that priority order too. Of course there are other relevant details such as number of drills and who the actual FO partner is and timings and deadlines and whether we get any retrospective buy-back options/rights etc etc....but IMO these factors all get relegated to background noise if points 1,2 and 3 above are resolved strongly enough in favour of current shareholder interests.

For me....an excellent result would be a one well agreement (with associated options for field appraisal and/or development of targeted reservoir/s in success scenario) where the AEA/BEX JV retains at least 25% WI on free carry; gets upfront cash to keep the lights on for 12 months while drilling takes place; and includes options for the FO partner in the success scenario for uprated FO transactions for other reservoirs to be targeted across the Western Fairway. Obviously there is a lot of room below this expectation and the threshold (described above) of what would be a poor FO.

But I wonder how the market will see it. And whether LTI sentiments and ST trader sentiments align.

Just speculating and all IMO.