GRR 5.26% 36.0¢ grange resources limited.

"GRR s exactly the same company but in even better...

  1. 85 Posts.
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    "GRR s exactly the same company but in even better shape."

    Correct - It the same company. The same one with the same major shareholder, Shagang, being the puppet master controlling the BOD with one vision and purpose only - ensure they secure steady supply of high grade IO regardless of SP or IO price and now in a much better condition to do so.

    At this stage I am convinced that the BOD is not negligent or incompetent, they are simply following a long term plan irrespective of SP or IO price - Shagang's plan. Minority retail shareholders serve only one purpose - to get the FIRB off their back. Unlike you or I - retail investors, they do not care about SP or divs - that is small change for them compared to risk of not having access to the high grade IO. If anything its probably better for them when SP is down so they do not get on any index and avoid unnecessary noise.

    IO price is completely out of the BOD control - but actions and communications is - and the inaction and silence send the message loud and clear.

    Fact - They have not hedged IO price when they could and should have according to the BOD risk management section called out in the annual report. With such longstanding experienced management they cannot claim they couldn't or were taken by surprise. With their experience they should have anticipated it and acted. Other miners do it all the time, some more successful than others. If FEX could, so could GRR - but the BOD sat on their hands.

    FACT - Complete and utter silence while SP still getting decimated, IO price tanks and many longterm shareholders upset. (I am not arguing whether there should have been higher divs or not - as far as I am concerned I would be fine with 0 divs if they had a communicated plan to grow, take advantage of other companies whilst at their knees and diversify).

    It is the same company. They are in better condition due to their cash position but the reason the market prices GRR at an unbelievable ~570m MC for a company that has probably the lowest PE on asx and soon will have 0 EV is because of complete mistrust in the BOD and their ability to get growing returns on that cash.

    Taking into consideration that:

    1. IO price still falling
    2. No hedge in place and no diversification or any other risk management exhibited.
    3. Majority of shipping is to china with no major offtakes to other locations.
    4. No concrete communicated plan yet on what to do with the cash reserves (They had alot of time to come up with one based on various likely scenarios). Planning now in the last minute instead of well ahead of time (as you said IO price fluctuation is an expected scenario) is baffling.
    5. Australia and China relations going downhill and unfortunately soon could get much worse when china retaliates after this week's events. This could escalate to China blocking all IO imports.
    6. Evergrande collapse very possible and looming

    That is not a BOD I want to be leading GRR in this troubled water. Market is always right - as I said before I am not surprised we saw 40s even briefly on friday. I suspect this is not the last time we will see it and if it breaks the low 50s support zone the next major support is at the 29c range intersecting with the longterm trendline around december this year.



 
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