8thDecember 2023
Friday
In a significant developmentfor the U.S. economy, a series of key reports are set to be released on Friday,December 8, 2023. These include the monthly Average Hourly Earnings, Non-FarmEmployment Change, Unemployment Rate, and the Preliminary University ofMichigan Consumer Sentiment. This comprehensive economic data is highlyanticipated as it provides valuable insights into the current state of the U.S.labor market and consumer confidence.USD - AverageHourly Earnings m/m
This serves as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Typically, when businesses incur higher labor costs, these increased expenses are often passed on to consumers.
In October 2023, the average hourly earnings of all U.S. private nonfarm workers rose by 7 cents, a 0.2% increase, bringing the rate to $34.00. This growth was a notch below the expected 0.3% and followed a revised increase of 0.3% in September. In the same month, hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees went up by 10 cents, or 0.3%, reaching $29.19. Annually, these earnings have seen a 4.1% increase, the smallest since June 2021, after a revised 4.3% rise in September, slightly exceeding the anticipated 4% growth.
The latest forecast for AverageHourly Earnings m/m basis shows a steady trend, with projections remaining unchanged at 0.2%. This figure matches the previous month's result, indicating a consistent pace in wage growth.
The upcoming release of the AverageHourly Earnings m/m is scheduled for Friday, December 8, 2023, at 1:30PM GMT.
The last time, the US Average Hourly Earningsm/m was announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find themarket reaction graph (EURUSD M5) below:USD - Non-FarmEmployment Change
Job creation is a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which forms a substantial portion of overall economic activity. When employment levels rise, more individuals have income to spend, thereby boosting consumer spending and driving economic growth.
In October 2023, the U.S. economy experienced a notable slowdown in job growth, adding 150,000 jobs, significantly less than the revised September figure of 297,000 and below market expectations of 180,000. This cooling in the labor market is partially attributed to strikes, including those by UAW members affecting manufacturing payrolls. Noteworthy gains occurred in healthcare, adding 58,000 jobs, and government employment, which returned to pre-pandemic levels with 51,000 new jobs. Other sectors such as construction, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services also saw increases. However, manufacturing faced a sharp decline, losing 35,000 jobs, primarily in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing due to strike activities. Despite falling short of the 258,000 average monthly job gain over the past year, October's figures still exceed the monthly job growth needed to keep pace with the working-age population increase.
TL;DR
·U.S. job growth slowed in October 2023, adding only 150,000 jobs.
·September's job growth was higher at 297,000; market expected 180,000 in October.
·Strikes, particularly in the auto sector, impacted job numbers.
·Healthcare (+58,000 jobs) and government (+51,000 jobs) saw significant gains.
·Manufacturing lost 35,000 jobs, mainly due to strikes.
·Despite the slowdown, job growth exceeds the rate needed for working-age population growth.
The forecast for the Non-FarmEmployment Change is projecting an increase to 175,000 jobs, slightly surpassing the previous figure of 150,000. This indicates a modest uptick in job creation across various sectors.
The upcoming Non-FarmEmployment Changereport is scheduled for release on Friday,December 8, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, the US Non-Farm Employment Change was announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M5) below:
USD -Unemployment Rate
While typically categorized as a lagging indicator, the count of individuals without employment holds significant implications for the broader economic well-being. This is due to the strong correlation between consumer spending and labor-market conditions. Furthermore, unemployment is a pivotal factor underpinning the decisions of those responsible for shaping the nation's monetary policy.
In October 2023, the United States witnessed a slight increase in its unemployment rate, which rose to 3.9%. This exceeded both market expectations and the previous month's rate of 3.8%. This marks the highest level of joblessness recorded since January 2022, with the number of unemployed individuals growing by 146,000, reaching a total of 6.51 million. Concurrently, the count of employed individuals decreased by 348,000, settling at 161.2 million. Additionally, the employment rate dipped from 60.4% in September to 60.2%, while the participation rate edged down from 62.8% to 62.7%. Notably, both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed individuals have increased by 0.5 percentage points and 849,000, respectively, since reaching their recent lows in April.
TL;DR
Statistic
October 2023 Data
Change from Previous Month
1 Unemployment Rate
3.9%
+0.1%, Highest since Jan 2022 (from 3.8%)
2 Number of Unemployed Individuals
6.51 million
+146,000
3 Number of Employed Individuals
161.2 million
-348,000
4 Employment Rate
60.2%
-0.2% (from 60.4%)
5 Labor Force Participation Rate
62.7%
-0.1% (from 62.8%)
6 Change since April (Recent Low)
-
Unemployment rate: +0.5%; Number of unemployed: +849,000
The Unemployment Rate remains steady, holding at 3.9% and mirroring the previous figure, indicating a stable job market situation.
The upcoming Unemployment Ratedata is scheduled for release on Friday, December 8, 2023, at 1:30 PMGMT.
The last time, the US Unemployment Rate was announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURUSD M5) below:
