9 cents, page-4

Tommo,

I followed TwinCreeks's process at the beginning almost exactly. I also bought in on the break up on the 25th of January (at 4.2) and - like him - missed the run to the nines on the 9th of February (away for the day from my computer). However, as I'd been badly bitten by the FAR price drop when SHELL decided not to take up an option to drill offshore in West Africa (a straight roulette red or black decision - and FP seemed to be of the same go/no-go ilk) I watched carefully the next day to try and leave with the best price possible. I was out at 8.2 cents - nearly doubling my investment. I'm a great fan of using Commsec's buyer/seller totals (a useful tool from Sanford when absorbed by the CBA) and, when prices in many stocks have become ionispheric, have been out in a flash when the total number of sellers has started to rapidly increase (and vice versa).

At the opening on the 10th at 8.4 cents, VIL simply failed to 'press ahead'. At that price, too, of course, a 10% stop-loss figure was also dictating the terms, but the main determinant in selling was the quickening rise in the number of sellers.

Unlike TwinCreeks, I've not been back in (had happily traded profitably a number of times prior to the run to the nines), but the last couple of days have stirred the contents of my buying pot again. The MACD is 'one-day positive' on the histogram, there's a Bollinger squeeze, the closing price is brushing the bottom of the 20XMA and the buy/sell ratio seems to be inexorably turning positive (although I'm never comfortable about buying when the numbers are negative - 116 buyers/197 sellers. I research daily to look for stocks with a 2:1 buyer/seller ratio).

And there seems to be a rise in increasingly agreeable comments from those of you who are better at understanding the fundamentals.

As Tom Cruise's character, 'Mitch McDeere', in the 1993 film, The Firm' when he sits down to breakfast, when having failed to come home after working all night at his law firm, and his wife, Abby, rather crossly and with arms folded puts last night's dinner (veal piccata) on the table in front of him, says, "Looks good!"

If the buyer/seller ratio gets even more positive on Tuesday, I'm back in.