BIG (ASX) 9 month share price target is +$2.00 share

Originally posted by vafooli ↑

Pods, I think you are estimating the valuation too conservatively. Undoubted, risks exist with any new company, growth could slow, or other unforeseens may occur. However, I believe the market will begin to realise the exponential potential with this stock. Growth in the US and UK will likely eclipse the numbers we have in Australia. Not only are those bigger markets, but the company now has knowledge and experience from Australia that can be implemented overseas. Our numbers currently are pointing to a potential profit (as you mentioned EBIT is more correct) of over $6mil per year based on last quarter alone. And I believe we are likely to see continued growth.
Another important point I would like to make, the company receives income from clients as a subscription that is paid and calculated as revenue spread over the course of the year. What this means is that the quarterlies are less likely to show volatile swings in either direction. It also means that the amount of cash flow positivity that we have seen in previous quarters is probably an understatement compared to how much business we truly developed during that time, as the newly generated income from last quarter will be paid over the course of the next 12mths. Again, I'm not saying there is no risk, all I am saying is there is some more stability in our numbers quarter to quarter.
I personally think a current price of $2 per share is reasonable. Thats roughly a PE (price to EBIT... lol) of 40. Whats holding us back is that we were so undervalued for so long, and since many people were holding from 10c there will be those taking profits as the price rises. Also psychologically such rapid growth makes new potential investors believe its overpriced, just based on the chart appearance. Of course as the next few quarters go by and profits hopefully continue to increase, the risk of investing decreases. However, by then our market cap will already be sitting at much higher levels, and new investors will have less growth potential. Just depends on your investment strategy.

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I completely disagree with most of that except the revenue side of things. Many companies have had similar business models with similar revenues but have failed to take it overseas. It's a risk and there are many more risks which are unforeseen. The market will price them in. $2 may be an ok target, but not within 12 months. Perhaps 24 months. The market just won't let that hapepen. We're approaching fair value now. We'd need ridiculous quarter on quarter growth, say + 50% to get there, but our growth as a percentage of revenue is slowing.