yep thanks for the post, but is it a rising wedge??
"The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. While it is a consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive high gives the pattern its bearish bias. However, the series of higher highs and higher lows keeps the trend inherently bullish. The final break of support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won out and lower prices are likely. There are no measuring techniques to estimate the decline – other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to forecast price targets."
1. "Prior Trend: In order to qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. The rising wedge usually forms over a 3-6 month period and can mark an intermediate or long-term trend reversal. Sometimes the current trend is totally contained within the rising wedge; other times the pattern will form after an extended advance"
current pattern is 2.5 weeks old
2. Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous high.
current pattern has 2 reaction highs of almost equal height (2.43,2.44)
3. Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be higher than the previous low.
current pattern has 2 reaction lows (1.92,2.11)
4. Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing. This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as prices increase.
current pattern supports this
5. Support Break: Bearish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.
current support has not broken yet in a convincing fashion
6. Volume: Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An expansion of volume on the support line break can taken as bearish confirmation.
current pattern supports this point.
7. If the move has advanced well above the 50% Fibonacci level, this pattern might not be a valid pattern. If it's still under that level, the pattern is still valid
current pattern has just slightly broken the 50% fib
All in all it "could" be a rising wedge, but I believe the time line to be too short. Their may even be another higher reaction high and higher reaction low in the next couple weeks before confirmation of a rising wedge.
In some of the articles I've looked at, there was mention of the Chaikin Money Flow turning negative, which means accumulation has reversed - which I believe is unlikely unless larger market conditions come into play... i.e. major economic downturn in the next couple months.
Regards
Zip
AGS Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
