Thinking about the discount to ATHA, it makes sense to me that...

Thinking about the discount to ATHA, it makes sense to me that this gap will close sharply when we get into the last week or two before settlement in April.
Right now, anyone wanting play the arbitrage game has to think about what the price will be in April. A lot can happen in 4 months, so buyers would want a larger discount now as a buffer. But when we are on the settlement day, the final price will be known, so all risk is removed and some will play the arbitrage to clip an overnight 5%/10% profit. Before then, the discount may also reduce a bit if the plan is approved by shareholders and removes that risk.