lol your thirst for knowledge is immense mate, I will put my calcs up here as I'm a lot more comfortable with them now than I was a few months ago.... give me some time
Will be interesting to see how they marry up when the PFS comes out
One view I have (and i've flip flopped here) is that we will produce a HIGH purity MnSO4 product, i.e. it will be 99.95% not the 32% product the 'spot' price is based on. This would be consistent with that latest Manganese X presentation where they say the same - it means a lot more revenue on 200kt of product, but also more cost as mining numbers need to be 3x to produce 200kt @ 99.95% v 200kt @ 32%
It would also mean a lot more capex, and a lot of risk using 100% of our mined ore to venture into the unknown straight away. I know we have the take or pay arrangement with OMH (5yrs I think?), so will need to fulfil that commitment and that may be the transition strategy, ie. ramp up Mn conc production to 1Mt while still selling to 1/3rd to OMH (guaranteed cashflow) but use the rest for HPM. That would give us 130kt of HPMSM and the ability to ramp up to 200kt at the completion of the OMH Take or Pay arrangement (which would be like 1 or 2 years). I've said previously that it doesn't make sense to continue selling Mn concentrate once the HPM is up and running because we are cannibalising our ore for lower margins... but a transition across would be very sensible
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