99.999% certainty humans are driving global warming: new study, page-21

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    Well, the first problem seems to be that they take into account volcanic forcing - when they don't know how many undersea volcanoes there are, let alone what their emissions are. So it's more an arithmetic issue than maths:

    El Nino = xxx
    Solar rad = yyy
    Volcanoes = ???

    Total = agw - not!
 
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