Tyco,Just a coupla points if you don't mind mate,If they have...

Tyco,

Just a coupla points if you don't mind mate,

If they have identified 11 jurassic super fields in the Nogaal valley alone,, all of which are larger than 1 billion barrels....and they have oil samples from this level proving an API super quality of 49 degree ( stated by landau to upstream online), why would they stop drilling when they strike the cretaceous formations (again !)

As you suggest, the cretaceous strike potential is 100% certain.

Why?

Because it has been struck by no less than 7 majors in more than a dozen fields all over Somalia as far north as the Italian darin and as far south as chevrons block C in tfg heartland, and as far west as Conoco's block 28.(much further north west if you include total, chevron, and ex british somalian friendlies in the somalian state of somaliland.

You only have to search thru the Somalian oil laws and concession archives to see how many times the horn has accommodated different Co's from Japan, China, Italy, northern EU, UK, Africa, USA, indeed all corners of the globe to get a feeling for just how many capped or p&a wells already exist, and indeed how many layers and eras of concessions/oil laws have been nullified/rescinded/amended by sheer weight of precedent

They go back to the 30's at least, and will be the basis of legal precedent should short sheeters like Gedi and Ali attempt kick up dust.

The oil is known to be API 32 degree or better in the cretaceous (wti std)

But 100's of thousands of barrels is ultra conservative tyco and very inaccurate, when you consider that just one of the proven cretaceous wells in the Nogaal valley has a proven reserve of just under 100 million bbls, and another one (block C) supplied the west for over a dozen years from 1953 and was only turned off due to the much more convenient finds in the gulf of mexico at the time. (a time when oil was pennies a barrel.)

Block 28 is laughable when you consider they were after the elephant in the jurrasic when they struck the embuggerance of 97 million bbls in the upper cretaceous....

What Co would wish to be so unlucky today...

We hardly even mentioned the Italians....and they ran Somalia for the lions share of the halcyon easy oil era.

Even stockhouse elude to a 50 million bbl reserve in their 50 dollar rerate of aoi last week.....based on what?

This can only be a reference, a conservative reference, to the shallower cretaceous fields,....and known quantities.

Is it any wonder the occidentals and their competiters are sniffing 'round big time.

Historical internal memos giving daily flow rates in zones relevant to rrs/aoi and chevron conoco eni agip still exist.

There is no risk regarding ''first oil''

First oil was 55 years ago in the horn.

Pongo will now tell us all what the real risk is (from his holding and accumulating perspective of course.

( after all, he consistently and openly discloses his position and sentiment for all to read in conjunction with his posts )

But if he is genuine and truthful, he will tell you where the boys started heading to today....and why....

The boys are making a habit of hitting sand city at anns time.

The volume is still virtually illiquid....but it has double recently....

As Feb hits us I would suggest it will double again.

Pongo says smart people are selling, and suggests the foolish are holding.....then who's buying..??