The biggest hurdle is how CCC will refinance its debt coming up....

The biggest hurdle is how CCC will refinance its debt coming up. What terms and conditions will be placed upon them.

If they can get favorable terms then I can see CCC re-rate hard (or should I say CCC share price will run just before the announcement and retrace on the news). They will find it hard to do a straight vanilla debt since its market is too low and positive net cash flows are not there yet.

The other choice would be subprime style financing. I can see that any interest rate on a refinancing package will be 10-12%+. If the new lenders want a choice to convert to equity (just in the scenario that the business turns around) then I can see a convertible price at around 5c (just basing on today price of 3c). CCC will need a facility of $20m since we have to factor finance expense costs (Brokers like Investec will charge like 6-8% success fee and on top their administration cost).

I am factoring that if CCC can dramatically turn their operations there may be a big dilution if indeed they are refinancing their current convertible loan with another revised convertible loan. This may leave CCC vulnerable to a backdoor takeover.

Trying to get information on the net profitability points breakdown guidance for the next 12 months but cannot seem to find them.

De Witts won't be producing in the next 12 months, and I don't know where CCC can get the money to develop this quickly. If they can get a debt facility against the asset, they would still need to come up with their own equity.

Best hope is that coal prices rebound by say 30-40% in the short-medium term to give Vlak and Penn comfortable margins where they can self sustain the interest and all other associated costs. This will in turn increase their chance of getting a favorable refinance deal.

High Risk for High Reward. CCC can turn it but just remember the High Risk.