a bid or no bid that is the question

Felix finished trading at $5.83 yesterday after hitting a 6.5 year high of $5.90.

With AMCI holding 19.25% of Felix stock, the next two biggest holdings total around 34% of the company and they are the key to future action.

AMCI are unlikely to want Xstrata to take a chunk of Moolarben and may be waiting to see the final outcome of the case at the NSW Supreme Court.

Either AMCI or Xstrata could make a move to get a majority holding in Felix Resources. The former could buy-out the larger holders and be home and dry. They would then have to bid for the rest.
Xstrata would probably go for one big hit and bid around $7.25 a share.

Now, there could be other outcomes. Xstrata may require Felix to buy their land, that covers 20% of Moolarben. That is if the NSW Mining Warden and Courts come to certain decisions.
What value is put on this land? Difficult to guess, but it could be around $50 million and Felix can't really afford this with $300 million required for Moolarben development.

So Felix could agree to Xstrata taking a stake in Moolarben, perhaps 20%, and Xstrata paying $60 million towards development costs. Thus saving Felix from shelling out $50 million.

Some may say that Xstrata would not be interested in such a measly stake and of course AMCI may not be amicable to such an arrangement.

However, they say that everyone has their price and a 45% profit on a bid at $7.25 would be a temptation.