a brief look by me sees the announcement say 50% fine, 50% lump
revenue must be multiplied by the grade of iron ore
so at average receipt of say US$108 per tonne (lump $122 and fines $95) at 90 cent exchange rate x 60% grade = $72 per tonne in revenue
truck 150km to railway then rail to Port Adelaide. Trucking would probably push to costs towards $50 per tonne at least, even $55.
60% profit share to TRF.
Mine life currently is only 5 years for the chrystaline DSO. Please bear in mind all of the iron ore is not DSO. The majority of the iron ore is low grade magnetite required HUGE CAPEX.
NPAT to TRF would be 2m x 60% x $22 margin per tonne x 30% tax = $18m pa or 23 cents EPS over five years.
Cash received per share over 5 years = $1.15
If iron prices rise 25%, revenue up to $81 per tonne, margin up to $30 per tonne, NPAT pa up to $25m and cash received over five years up to $1.57 (on 80 million shares).
TRF Price at posting:
$1.03 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held