a broader market financial indicator

I am trying to find a broader financial market indicator that is timed with market moves. It makes sense that a short term loan facility forms part of it.

Using OIS and Libor rates as money demand indicators, then I think we are within a week of a major trend change - breaking out of the sideways channel.

Going by Feb/Mar 2010, this change would be into equities and commodities.

OIS and LIBOR come in many flavors, 1mon, 2mon, 3mon, etc and depending on the forecasted duration by the big players, they will borrow against that duration probably starting with smaller loan durations and building as confidence builds.

OIS and LIBOR - 1 month below, note what looks like the points of trend change that confirms the move

(overlayed without scale, % change shown for each over 1yr)

Are we seeing a change in money demand now? I think so. You can see similar trends in the 2m and 3m meaning it is likely to last at least 2 months. (fx correlations post)

It doesn't say where, it just says something is moving, or about to move.

Assuming increased OIS rates of interest are the result of increased demand for lending, which makes sense to me. It also means the OIS rate will be the first to move.

OIS and Libor apply to all the major single currencies - USD, EUR, YEN, CHF, GBP. By using correlations and monitoring trends with the COT updates from CW - then we are formulating the cyclic flow of investment from asset class to asset class using the trends in the currencies.

Currencies are the grass roots of all trade, revenues and measures of wealth if you haven't already guessed.

rgds,
pw