Good Analysis. One point is that Tropicana may have a couple of quarters of mediocre performance until it ramps up further in early 2022.
From the fact Sheet at TropicanaJV:
" A decision was made in the June 2020 quarter to invest in the next cutback of the Havana pit (Stage 2) which will allow access to the deeper Havana open pit ore from 2022 onwards. While this cutback is being completed, mill feed will be sourced from the Boston Shaker open pit, supplemented by approximately 4 Mtpa of low grade (0.85 – 1.05 g/t) stockpiled ore, resulting in a lower milled grade over the period. The lower grade will be partially offset by the Boston Shaker underground mine. The plan remains for annual gold production (at 100%) in 2020 and 2021 to be between 400,000-450,000 oz lifting to between 450,000–500,000 oz from 2022 onwards as the portion of stockpiled ore in the mill feed is replaced by both Boston Shaker underground ore and an increasing contribution of ore from the Havana pit as the cutback progresses."
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