WGP westralian gas and power limited

a chart for "technicals4me" (2 actually)

  1. 682 Posts.
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    You may have seen technicals4me and I having a bit of a disagreement over the 'trading range' of WGP. As I have said, a trading range is defined as something along the lines of "The price that a stock buys and sells BETWEEN over a certain period of time." I'm thinking the period of time would be less than 2 weeks, as for the preceding 6 weeks before that it traded below this 2.6 cent - 3.0 cent trading range.

    If you look to the first chart below, I have drawn two horizontal lines where the supposed 'trading range' occurs.
    *There is support at 2.6 cents.
    *There no resistance at 3.0 cents. This is obvious as the stock traded above 3.0 cents over 4 of the 8 days supposedly in the 'trading range.' On one day, it actually closed 7% higher than the upper end of his range.
    *Technicals sold on the 13/01/2011 where there is a vertical line. There was no supporting sell signal and no trading range to speak of.
    *In conclusion, technicals sold purely on speculation, not using any form of technical analysis (the day he sold was actually a 'big bullish window,' with a strong close at finish). We can only say in hindsight over the last 2 days that it was the right time to sell...but at the time it was NOT.

    If you look to the bottom chart, you will see what I am broadly following - a nice, steady, channelling two month uptrend (a bit like these pitchforks that everyone around here loves!). Why would you be selling near the bottom of this? This is the time to top up (although not advice).

    If you are selling at the bottom, perhaps have a look into the 'momentum effect' and ask why you are selling. It is a trading phenomenon, that if a stock 'trends up' over a certain period time, it has a greater chance of trending up in the future than the general market (thus why people get so much into extrapolation...think gold, oil, silver etc etc predictions for 2011). There are trading strategies that incorporate this in the states and claim to outperform consistently. Makes sense given the 'herd mentality effect' huh?

    Good luck, whatever your so called 'style,' even if it is purely speculation!
 
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