a chartist view, page-15

>>Thanks FP.

Quick question... Based on projected possible earnings as shown in the AGM presentation, what do you think SP could be by Jan 2012?

Cheers,
T<<

Tony, most are biased based on current holdings- myself included. We try to make calculations based on presentations, talking with Directors and other research. Yet it is difficult to look past the potential earnings this Coy 'could' make in years to come. On guidence given to us of late.

Having 47 Coys very near final stages was a critical statement that MUST have contributed to the 50% rise in last 2 weeks. IMO. Other speculation is insiders are leaking news- yet BRR and AGM was very successful communication event for the MD.

To pin point the earnings potential in 1.1 year is easier said than done... yet they should have many more signings and HUGE growth prospects by then. I guessimate the earnings will still have a PE= 100x ++ by then as the biotech sales game is very slow. Yet once your products are being used it can take decades for another competitor to ever take your place.

ADO is attempting to take the place of decades old technology- like comparing graphite tennis rackets to wooden ones. There time will come bit by bit....signing by signing... sale by sale.

In 1.1 years majors in the main Pathology and POC, etc fields should be signed with forward earnings potential of 300 Mil UP. Yet they will not be earning anywhere near this some- anytime soon.

For this play we look at the products as Market Changers in the Blood protein field to makes testing faster and more cost effective.

The main SP drivers will be the signings in the larger sectors, not their earnings in Jan 2012- which is not far way in terms of the biotech field.

Having a major signing in a large money making sector 'could' jump the stock up many times current levels. On a risk to reward basis with recent reports of 47 majors in advanced stages. This is looking like a nice bet- thus the rise of late.

Naturally we only need a couple of majors to announce a deal in the ST for this Coy to take off. Some are now jumping on board and are willing to take that bet. It was never bound to stay at 4-6c levels for long.

Naturally many are wary, as it been to 10c before- yet we have extra runs on the board now and we grow closer to a major non Bead signing every single day...Investors know it.

Only a matter of time IMO. Very hard to base on a forward earnings basis unless you take a percentage of each market and say they will capture 30%. It is all up in the air figures.

For my money however it will be far more than the 3 mil pa earnings in the current SP. Yet for years I figure we will be at PE ratio x100+ until they capture larger market shares and stabilize earnings.

Hope helps.

Cheers JAY