Boy has ELM had a good run or what?Over the last couple sessions...

Boy has ELM had a good run or what?
Over the last couple sessions we have reached price equilibrium (or as Gann puts it - time and price are squared) where supply demand is about equal and prices are steady.
Where to from here?
The ELM daily chart follows:




[The first thing I notice is that the momentum oscillators are converging in overbought territory - bearish.
The second thing is the little gap at $1.545 opened on 19/01.
It's only 1 tick but 80% of these get closed in any retracement.
The third is that (although not updated for today's bar) we have a swing high made today at $1.79 and combined with the convergence of the momentum oscillators in overbought this increases dramatically the odds of a retracement.
If we assume the operative swing is the rally from the $1.15 low (29/12/2010) to the $1.89 high (24/01/2011) then we get the 45 - 60% target zone of $1.56 to $1.38.
Interestingly, the top of the zone matches the gap target and the lower target matches the old resistance at $1.375 that should now be support.
Thus I conclude that probabilites (80%)now favour a retracement to $1.545 as a minimum and possibly $1.38 as an outside chance (20%).