a classic from oly

Hope you don't mind.
Very much worth a repeat as the fundamentals haven't changed.
And a tribute to your vision.

More to come as saved at the time in separate folders. Sorry if it's duplicated a bit.
Think I've got it right, please correct if not.

For recent rowers( observe the date).

Subject zenmammon i have not forgotten u / orm capter 1
Posted 01/07/05 13:47 - 49 reads
Posted by olympian

IP 210.49.xxx.xxx
Post #637709 - start of thread - splitview




Oh Zen, what can I say in few words? let me try.
But first a little HISTORY so u can see where im coming from.

History

(1) US takes USD off the gold standard in 1971 so they can print money as they like. Grand conspiracy begins but its roots go back to the Old Book.

(2) DJIA bull market starts in 1980 from a DJIA base sub 800.

(3) NKY and Japan collapses in debt black hole mega-deflation post 1991 crash and threatens to plunge the globe into major DEFLATIONERY depression.
This should have come around 1993 IMO and allowed to run its natural course ..... it have been relatively painless cf whats coming now instead.

(4) US presses the warp-speed button on their printing presses coincident with a global smoke and mirrors act on why the USD is the safest haven for any residual
liquidity from Japan's cashout. 1991 Irak Mark 1 demonstrates the military capability to endorse this view.

(5) Instead of global recession circa 1993 when DJIA bull was Fibo 13 years of age and sitting at circa 3300-3600 level, 4 times higher than start of its ascendency, massive liquidity expansion etc soaks up residual Jap liquidity and others follow suit, fuelling the major breakout into hyperspace of DJIA thru 3600 pivot level and culminating in the Dionyssian for another Fibo 8
years to the 2000-2001 D/T - highs circa 11600.

(6) Game moves to sabotaging the baby EURO with a "Balkans War" in 99 adds the final push of US markets to hyperspace in Y2K ........EVERYONE wanted USD so they bought everything in the US and the USFed continued to accommodate with monopoly money supply expansion at around 30% pa.

(7) During the last phases of the US bull, gold was debased to "worthless relic" status and "agents" assigned to keep it under stranglehold thru
derivatives market about 10 times the size of physical .... they kept shorting it with monopoly money supplied from uncle as required

(8) All of above made the US the #1 debtor nation using the globe's liquidity to finance its expansion, with full knowledge that at any time all they had to do was begin devaluation of the currency (print more) to
devalue the foreign debt whilst holding all the forex. Reckon the L/T strategy for this originated with the 1971 removal of the gold standard.

(9) However the beast developed a mind of its own and greed set in coupled with a new generation of yuppies handling the world's money and who hadnt
ever experienced a major bear market thinking that their (false) compass (unlike our goodship Compass:) only always pointed north ....... A series of new and more complex and interlinked derivatives markets evolved creating a total VIRTUAL market LARGER than the REALITY one and fuelled by electronic credits / fiat paper with NO HISTORICAL backing (like GOLD previously) apart from a promise of some intrinsic value givenby the printers toting new words of mass deception with guns primed offering deals u cant refuse.

Thats the basic evolution ..... con the world that the US is the only place to invest in ...... suck in forex liquidity thru smoke and mirrors for ransom......print as much paper IOUs as u need in exchange with full
knowledge that all u have to do later is devalue the debt by printing more paper ........... and so much more.

BUT they insulted Nature and the Twelve Olympians with their arrogance and falsehood and making the unforgiveable mistake of believing their own words !!!

Control was lost and the bubbles began burrsting ......tech boom based on hot air; USDX as the reality of the megacon emerged; DJIA and friends as the control was lost and the greed turned to fraud and lies at all levels ..........with the "worst" yet to come.

The USD is so intermeshed with all other paper and virtual instruments / derivatives etc that the whole world is now at risk of financial meltdown ,
waiting for the first rat to make the first move which knocks over the dominoes.

DJIA is now less relevant than SPX cos they just keep changing the components to suit the window dress. The beast has become too big to control and is on the verge of cutting loose. Check out Puplava's Perfect
Storm series in financialsense.com for details of how these things have evolved and how they threaten to torpedo the system from any one of many
independent directions .... "rogue events".

So whats ahead? ..... In my opinion of course. And my opinion first came as Delphic clarity thru the cosmic smoke circa April 2000 when the NDX failed
to hold the 4200 support level signalling confirmation of the mega-reversal ..... some 8 years realistically too late tho IMO... the DJIA etc completed its
double top in 2001 and started its "A" wave down to its Oct 12 02 low.

We now have

(1) The world flooded with intrinsically worthless IOUs called USD whilst the US continues to vacuum in forex albeit at a declining rate;

(2) A 2 bill USD / day need of foreign funds influx to continue funding the US deficits and keep the USD from collapsing to nothing and taking the foreigners reserves holdings down with it....hence they continue feeding it
...they have to;

(3) A complex derivatives mess which no-one really knows how to untangle nor what would happen or how to cope WHEN some event finally pulls the plug
.....everything dissolves and disappears into electronic space .... and it only needs the first domino to fall .....

...THATS why the relatively miniscule GOLD derivatives market (albeit 10 times larger than actaul physical markets) is so important to keep under check, cos any uncontrolled breakout from its capping can bring the whole virtual system down ..... And it is estimated the total DERIVATIVES market size is around 90 trillion bucks atm ..... I dont think anyone really knows any more;

(4) The whole middle class of the western world conned into participating in this paper and "e" virtual madness of liquidity since its 1993 beginnings now totally hocked to the hilt per ballooning mortgage debt assuming their property values are gonna keep going up forever and with no savings to fall back on in case it dont ......... the fall in US Fed rates to
historical lowest from DJIA "A" wave lows was another move to pump liquidity to keep the system afloat after equity market crash threatened to pull the
system plug ........extreme measures for extreme dangers.......cover yr debts by taking more cheap debt ......cheap for now ...... compounding further the "extremity".

(5) USD in downtrend and hence COMMODITIES in uptrend ...they can print all the paper they like but commodities / resources are finite ......why should OPEC give up its precious stuff for worthless paper ..... they gotta keep adjusting the price to keep pace with the increasing worthlessness of this paper ........ same will apply for all commodities as the proverbial hits the fan .... look at metals prices over last coupla years;

(6) The yanks using their military might to enforce foreign and economic policy ... extreme conditions require extreme measures and intense smoke and
mirrors .... enter Irak 2 at Fib 13 years after Irak 1 ...... wonder if anyone has studied the Fibonacci relevance to timing of global conflicts (?) .... check out the cosmics too :)

(7) China licking its lips picking up assets in exchange for the worthless bits of US paper it increasingly holds from riding the USD to ensure ongoing increase in global market share...already on a global resources
shopping spree ....holding its currency like a millstone around the USD neck to maintain this advantage ........ exporting deflation to the world keeping prices low and shutting down the competition.

(8) Muslim world thinking Christians are disciples of the underworld .... and we sure have given them cause to think this way ........ what ever happened to "truth, justice" and superman looking after the meek? .....at least the good US public is starting to believe they have been conned and starting to demand answers .... whilst we are too busy worrying about the footy to bother;

(9) Global property bubbles in hyper mode fuelled by irresponsibly low interest rates' deathwish, with plebs over-extended and now facing increasing rates. Bubble ready to burst.

(10) Emerging evidence of US pension fund deficiencies making the good people increasingly aware of the fraud, lies, incompetency, smoke and mirrors extending to and threatening their own future economic wellbeing.
Wonder if we r gonna start seeing such here as well.

(11) An increasing number of born agains holding the reins of power and the trigger on the big guns believeing not only that Armageddon is coming but anxious to do the right thing and urge it along!!! Its these guys who actually vote cos their preachers tell them to how and when .... most others dont care. Its these same non-Olympians tho who acquit their preacher of 36 counts of alleged fraud causing billions of bucks of innocents' savings being wiped ......... he had his "faith in JC" for Zeus' sakes !!!

Ahhhh where are the days of Olympian glory. No hang-ups. Battles for glory in the name of Aries with pauses for games of glory in the name of all Olympians. Celebrations in Dionyssos' name with mandatory attention to Aphrodites willing maidens. Sailing the Med in rowboats challenging the Fates. Honour, truth, justice, humility ..... LIVING and FEASTING on the wonders of Nature whilst bowing in humility to her Omnipotence ! Instead we disgrace and insult her and tempt her merciless wrath which is about to be unleashed.

Thats the background Zen ........... I am disgusted with it all, so will go to the gym to cleanse my mood.

Next chapter will explain why our good ship Compass, true to Olympian ideals, is indeed our sturdy ARK, ship-shape and seaworthy to protect Olympians from the impending perfect storms about to be unleashed by Mother Nature preparing to cleanse the crimes and humiliations being committed against her.

These are MY ramblings of course and may not be yours.

I need a drink of ambrosia and a puff of cosmic smoke.
Voluntary Disclosure: Position Sentiment: LT Buy TOU violation












Subject zen / orm chapter 2
Posted 01/07/05 15:54 - 36 reads
Posted by olympian

IP 210.49.xxx.xxx
Post #637977 - in reply to msg. #637709 - splitview




URSA MAJORIS born y2000/1

Likely age : Fibo 13 years following Fibo 21 years of the previous Bull.

Likely Mode : 5 primary Elliott Waves A-B-C-D-E

Lets talk DJIA cos I have all the figures in memory ...tho they have changed the nature of this beast .... when one component does not perform, it is simply replaced by another which does. Tho SPX is the more appropriate representative .... will also use.

So far (and dont forget straight from memory so dont quibble about minor inaccuracies) :

"A" primary bear wave completes in 5 moves to Oct 12 2002 low DJIA 7200. Size of move approx 3400 points. Major pivots along the way ........ the Grand ORM pivot 7930-8150 IDL-EOD levels Sep 23, 2001, the first trading day post 9/11 closure. The mega-line in the sand tho was at 9800 where it hit twice and on third attempt sliced thru in June/July 2002 heading straight line to the low within about 4 months. The 9800 level remains the line in the sand for CURRENT market too ..... corrsponds to around SPX 1125

"B" megasuckers rally wave can be seen as either beginning from there at 7200 or more likely after a double bottom at DJIA 7400 Mar 2003. 3 distinct rally waves with top last March 2005 at SPX 1229, with lower top either side of it completing the triple top.
Many believe we should have rallied back to the 61.8% Fibo rterce level of 1254 and i too gave it a chance. But last attempt seems to have failed and recent failure to hold DJIA 10400 makes me believe we have indeed seen the high last March and "C" megabear has already sneaked outa his cave and starting to clear his sleepy eyes. Irak 2 smoke and mirrors extended life of this babybull prob by a year. Cosmics and lunar phases etc were deadly with the turns.

"C" Ursa Majoris Hunger Wave .....otherwise known as ORM asset deflation wave ..... or YEE .....yuppie extinction event. .....................current

IMO it seems to have crept in when no-one was looking around the Mar equinox 05 (sure nailed an interim XAO peak at least) and recent winter solstice /full moon nailed the next turn. Suspect we are in C-1-3 about to confirm after a bounce or two circa DJIA 9800 .... where I think we are headed for now, given the 10400 line in the sand only held momentarily for a deadcat bounce so far.

Naturally no-one will be concerned and even call it a healthy correction, if/when it bounces off the 9800/50 ORM major pivot ..where it crashed thru around 3 years ago. HOWEVER, if it doesnt hold, FEAR and PANIC will indeed set in and confirmation of C-1-3 will be at hand. Some Cosmics show an AUG focus coming up, with another around NOV or so.

Whenever the timing confirms, IMO we are already at the beginnings of megabear-C asset deflation wave and the gates of hades are about to open in a debt default induced black hole akin to japan 1991+. This is DEFLATIONERY and IMO, thats why the yanks aint worried about oil price moving up ..... in fact suspect they would WANT this to add a little inflation into the system whilst maintaining control cos if it got outa hand it could even trigger the economy tripping over into an uncontrollable megabear C .......... Mother Nature's revenge of mortals tampering with natural cycles.

IMO megabear C asset deflation wave will trigger with a move thru DJIA 9800 ORM pivot and will not pause til it reaches the ORM megapivot 7930-8150 band. That may be the end of C-1 .... and that could be seen in WEEKS from now.

C-2 rally would prob take it back to some EW / Fibo retrace level u know, the std 32, 50 or 62% bounce levels .... but 9800 ORM pivot would stop it IMO. Other poss resitances would be 9150 and 9500 ...past important turn points.

C-3 is the crash wave .... and crashes dont happen without surprise. On the lookout later for it withinthe grand ORM. The likely low for C-3 which has to be greter than C-1 which is prob gonna be around 2400 points size, would have to crunch it below the "A" low of 7200 ........maybe as low as 6600 or even lower.

C-4 rally then and followed by final C-5 wipout of the EXCESSES of this pseudo bull market from 1993-2001.............and since IMO the "natural" high should have been circa 3600 / 1993 level, a wipeout of the last 8 years excesses of the pseudobull would see it back to that level fo final "C" low.

3600 also has a "harmonic" feel to it given x 2 = the 7200 "A" wave low.

So MY target for megabear C asset deflation wave is 3600 or so and my "timing" expectation is over next coupla years .... unless some mortal adjustments are imposed by way of another "Irak".

What happens during this DEFLATIONERY phase if indeed it does eventuate?

(1) DEBT DEFAULT BLACK HOLE EXPANDS to suck in equities, bonds and property values ...... causing

(2) increasing unemployment, economic depression, falling commodity prices, falling gold price, falling PER ratings of PRODUCERS AS WELL as falling EARNINGS per se, massive reduction of ASX list, increasing crime etc etc etc

(3) INCREASING INTEREST RATES competing for the residual liquidity

In asset deflation megabear C , ORM motto is "CASH IS KING AND DEBT IS DEATH" Hence my own personal ORM 80 / 20 rule having already liquidated all investments progressively over last year or so. And NOT cos i believ in the long term "worth" of paper money, but in a debt default induced black hole, even paper has some worth as asset values disappear into thin air or into e-virtual space.

And if I am right and this is what happens to REAL asset classes, just imagine what happens to VIRTUAL "e" pseudo asset classes. Say what ?

Margins are called so the marines of the market driving it are first wiped out .... the margin traders. And in an uncontrlled domino fallout, even HEDGING in DERIVATIVES inc CFDS are WORTHLESS cos the issuers of such VIRTUAL instruments just shut their doors and claim Chapter 11. Ever tried to battle it out with a market maker when the trade goes against him? It aint pretty let alone fair. Thats why i gave up THAT suckers game long ago. OK so long as things are orderly and they can hedge your hedges, but when Ursa Majoris wreaks havoc, they are only promises aint worth the paper they AINT even written on.

So, even IF u believe in cash is king philosophy, take care WHERE your cash is held. Top 3 banks spread for mine (I dont like NAB) and put a bit in a safety deposit box in case accounts are frozen and gov bonds given ..... u may not have access to yr account but they cant stop access to yr safety deposit box. Go one step further and keep a bit of this cash in legal tender AUD gold coins if u can get yr hands on any, tho that aint gonna be important until AFTER megabear C ends.

Survival of the fittest, most flexible, debt free Olympians with sharp cleavers patiently waiting for the remaining baby bulls left standing.

Meanwhile tho, baby Olympian CMR moves to toddler stage and begins its fiddling lessons amidst the flames of Rome. THATS why I only use PER 6 and not the current norm PER 12.

And granted, "E" of PER will be coming down in USD-denominated metal price terms, but being a commodity currency, AUD will also be coming down with the metal prices. Our Olympian leaders have not left this poss unhedged either ..... look at the L/T prices used for the project financials basis ... about 30% under spot. ANZ merchant bankers must be thinking in similar terms too cos they target an AUD 0.66 by EOY.

Of course this is simplistic cos there will be competeing drivers at differnt times in different parts of the world during this loss of control and deflation of the last decades worth of hot air across all asset classes. And then there will be paper devaluations beginning at differnt times at diff places to try and compete for fast shrinking global economic pie and residual liquidities. It will be history in the making and u might have to rely on pro-active Olympian economics instead of reactive conventional economics to stay ahead of the herd.

Mentality during megabear C is PRESERVATION OF CAPITAL, cos there will be NO wealth creation during this phase. If u lose ONLY 30% of yr realisable worth and are liquid enuff to pick up residual assets at 10c in the dollar, then u r effectively 7 times relatively better off in the following up cycle.

Dont know what im talking about u might think? Check yr history 1929-32- 39 ........thats how the rockefellas and JP Morgans quantum-leaped while the plebs were suffering. But u gotta be nimble footed and realise the banks will NOT BE OFFERING EASY MONEY during this time .......u gotta alraedy be cashed up and patient.

Ive seen it several times so far since my POS early trading edecuation days. The symptons now are the same .... but its gonna be MUCH BIGGER this time. And the pity about all this is the young middle class generation which hasnt experienced a real bear market cos there hasnt been one since pre 1980 !!! So they have been conned by the spivs (the major lenders being the most irresponsible) and wont know how to cope when it happens.,

Thats my thinking for next coupla years , maybe to around 2008/9. And I try to keep all possies covered. For now 80 cash (inc some metal) / 20 CMR riing out CMR's organic emerging growth during my expected asset deflation phase, preparing then for the tsunami surf wave ride of a lifetime .... if we are still standing financially ..... somewhat protected by ARK CMR.

Chapter 2 is about ASSET PRESERVATION and damge control .......... megabear C .........asset deflation wave.

Chapter 3 next (maybe over the weekend) is "D" wave rally, fuelled by Kondratieff commodity/resources/gold supercycle "C" wave .......... fuelled by paper currency devaluations trying to pump prime deflated economies back to their feet.

Stay with me Zenmammon cos I wont be writing this again ....










Voluntary Disclosure: Position Sentiment: LT Buy TOU violation