I bought PRR for the first time in Dec 06 and have bought and...

I bought PRR for the first time in Dec 06 and have bought and sold a number of times since then, and done very nicely. My strategy has been to buy at around 5c (or below) and sell on each spike above 6c. We have had 3 mid-sized spikes since I've been trading PRR (one to 7.5c), and I suspect there will be a few major spikes (15c+) soon given that there will be so much newsflow over the next 2 months or so. For this reason, I think that now is a good time to keep an eye on PRR as a trading opportunity.

I am possibly the only person posting on this board who has made decent money on PRR. This obviously gives me a different perspective than others. Some posters seem to hate PRR simply because they made a bad investment call (buying near all time highs and selling near all time lows). These same posters are also making a number of false claims about PRR. This false information is very negative for the stock (it really does affect the sp), but this is great for savvy traders since it facilates multiple cheap entry points.

Having said this, once the newsflow starts, I think it is important to separate fact from fiction. The following comments are an attempt to bring PRR's risk/reward equation into clearer view. My motivation in posting these comments is also the motivation behind all of my earlier comments on PRR, viz., to maximise the spikes in the SP. I want folks to be aware of PRR's potential, so that when/if good news emerges, they will push the SP accordingly.

(1) The final CVac phase IIa results: A number of posters on this thread are running around screeming that these results are "very bad" and that no patients showed either a minor or major clincial response. The fact is, these posters don't know what these results contain, other than what was presented in the interim report. We know from the interim results that 4 patients showed either disease stabilization OR a positive clinical response to CVac. What we don't know yet is how many of these 4 patients showed either stabilsation or a minor or major clinical response to CVac. IMO, if one of the 4 patients shows a minor or major clincial response, then PRR's share price will double on the news. If 2 patients show a clinical reponse then the SP will triple.

(2) Oncomab results: Oncomab results were supposed to have been released in Dec/Jan, so evidently there has been some kind of delay. Since Medarex is conducting the trials, this delay is probably out of PRR's hands. Small delays are common in biotech, and unless the company states otherwise, I think it is reasonable to assume that Oncomab results will be released in the near future. Positive Oncomab results could comand a valuation for the programme of $10mill (which is more than PRR current market cap).

(3) Cash holdings: PRR has $2mill in cash. This is not sufficient to fund CVac phase IIb/III, but it is enough to give PRR around 6months to find other funding sources. If final phase IIa results are sufficiently positive, Australian phase IIb/III is likely to be funded by a mix if non-dilutive funding (an AusIndustry grant) and a dilutive placement+SPP (Talyor Collison seems to be positioning itself to conduct this placement). Given PRR's market cap, low cash-burn until the next trials, and expected newsflow, I don't see PRR's cash levels being any impediment to SP moves over the next 3-4 months.

(4) QIC: A number of posters are sceeming that QIC has been selling PRR. QIC is a major shareholder of PRR and is obliged under ASIC regulations to disclose any sales. Since there have been no disclosures, it is safe to assume there have been no sales. My guess is that QIC will attempt to sell (along with everyone else) if CVac results are negative. But if CVac results are sufficiently positive, I'd expect QIC to support their investment by supporting PRR.

(5) Biomira electing: Again, no one knows what Biomira's intentions are. There are good reasons to support the view that Biormira will not elect (e.g. Biomira has just conducted a major acquistion and does not have a significant cash holding at the present time). But there are also good reasons to think that Biomira will elect if CVac results are sufficiently positive (e.g., CVac is an obvious strategic fit for Biomira, and Provenge registration will soon make cell therapy a much more valuable space). It should also be kept in mind that there are both advantages and disadvantages for PRR if Biomira do elect. Biomira election will obviously cause the SP to soar, but failure to elect will not necessarily cause the SP to crash.

(6) Provenge registration: A number of posters have been repeatedly screeming that this Provenge has no implications for PRR. I think this view is incorrect. Provenge registration will conclusively validate cell therapy and open the cell therapy space to new bioequity. If the early signs are that there is a strong demand for Provenge, then big pharma will be looking very closely at therapies such as CVac. My guess is that PRR's share price will get a significant boost from Provenge registration in a couple of months.

To sum up, if oncomab and CVac are sufficiently positive, then PRR's share price will soon rise significantly on the results (15c+ is not unrealistic). On the other hand if the trial results are negative, ambiguous, or insufficiently positive, then PRR's share price will tank and there will be a fire sale of remaining assets.

At this stage, I think the balance of probabilities favours postive results for both Oncomab and CVac, and given PRR's tiny market cap and potential 200%+ price gains over the next couple of months, reward clearly outweighs risk.

Happy trading.