AAG 0.00% 28.0¢ aragon resources limited

a compelling value proposition

  1. 6,439 Posts.
    A quick valuation

    Today's close 26.5c x circa 233m shares on issue = $61.74m market cap

    Cash @ 30/09/2010 = $8.2m
    Est Dec quarter cash outflow = $(2.65m)
    Net capital raising proceeds = $7m
    Cash sale of Territory Phosphate to RUM = $1m

    Total cash on hand = $13.55m (incl $3.3m cash backed bonds)

    Market value of RUM shares = 16m x $0.305 = $4.88m

    So, to summarise:

    AAG market cap $62m
    Cash $14m
    RUM shares $5m
    Value of CMGP $43m

    In other words, $43m for a 2m oz JORC resource, which includes 614k of reserves

    An E/V of $21.50/oz for resources alone, and even less if you ascribe a higher value to the reserves

    Apply a conservative $50/oz metric, and the AAG market cap becomes $119m, or 51c per share

    Should be a double bagger on peer-to-peer re-rating alone

    And with a decision to mine later this year, this could easily be a 5+ bagger

    Not to mention any exploration success, or additional resource/reserve upgrades, in the meantime

    Keep the faith

    Cheers
 
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