a cure for hep c, aids, the flu and dengue..., page-100

LOL TP, is there no end to the depth of your research!?

I looked back over my BIT purchase history and you are more or less correct about when I first bought into this company. I also saw that I payed as high as 27.5 cents for some of those early shares. Kinda makes you ask the question that if I knew it would take around 5 years to come to anything, why was I buying shares at that time?

I think the answer points to our human irrationality. We do things that don't always make sense. We get carried away on flights of emotion and hype. Certainly BIT went through a number of these periods in those ealier days. The prospects of what they had to offer looked so enticing in the light of other announcements being made at around the same times as those moves. People were buying, the price was moving up and one didn't want to get left behind. As an old pharmacologist I knew there was always the chance that some big pharmaceutical company could swoop in and buy them out. A remote possibility yes, but still, a chance.

Over the years, I have taken advantage of weakness in the share price to buy more. My average buy price is now just around current share price. I'm just in the black after all these years.

It's crazy when you think the share price 5 years ago was way above its current level. Sure there are a few more shares on issue now, but not that many. Market capitalisation was well above current levels.

You have to ask yourself how this can come about. We are virtually on the brink of success yet market cap is a fraction of what it was 5-6 years ago. Is this because the market is factoring in the potential of failure? Are we looking at the equivalent of an option expiry where the share price might be zero if the worst happens?

I guess that's always a possibility but as others have pointed out, the risks seem to be reducing here. Thus far, with patients reaching the end of the dosing period, we have no withdrawals implying minimal toxicity. Management appear to be confident about efficacy from previous testing (though I must admit to feeling nervous about this aspect. I've seen drugs enter phase three trials with all researchers cock a hoop with confidence, only to fall at the efficacy hurdle.

Still, it seems to me that the most likely scenario for the current round of trials is that we'll get through with a great tox result and promising efficacy. This should take the share price back to around 30 cents. After that anything can happen but don't discount the possibility of an irrationally exhuberant market response to a good announcement.