a cure for hep c, aids, the flu and dengue..., page-3

So, lets consider timeframes here then. The trial has commenced, though it is likely only the Thai site that is operating due to delays in permitting for the Argentinian trial.

With dosing to be completed by 29/10/10, and analysis to take roughly 8 weeks, there are two major milestones to pass.

Firstly, the trial, whilst blinded, will be halted if toxicity is demonstrated during the clinical phase. This means that if we can get to 29/10/10 without a trading halt, there should be a decent amount of derisking to be priced in.

Synergistic efficacy has been demonstrated in vitro and was demonstrably translated to in vivo results in phase Ib. With each non-control patient in IIa now receiving a cumulative dose of 11,200 mg or 22,400 mg (compared to a maxiumum 600 mg in phase Ib), I would speculate that efficacy is very likely. As such, if we can get past 29/10 without issue, the compound will have been significantly de-risked and the share price should be able to appreciate.

There can be more subtle side-effects that will need to be addressed in the comprehensive analysis in the weeks following the clinical phase, but at a market capitalisation of $8m, there has to be share price upside if trial can be successfully concluded in full.

The second milestone will be the release of the conclusive data around late December, possibly early January. Increased efficacy is highly likely given the positive relationship between dosage and efficacy demonstrated in vitro and in phase Ib. In vitro results also show no toxicity at levels far higher than the planned IIa levels so there is a real chance IIa will not be halted. Good results and this will fly - absolutely fly.
Cheers