G'day GiddyYup,I read that figure as being revenue generated by...

G'day GiddyYup,

I read that figure as being revenue generated by the J&J/Vertex partnership directly, though you may be correct. The article discusses the figure in direct reference to the partnership so I am inclined to think $2.6 billion is partnership revenue.


It is difficult to start calculating the percentage revenue attributable to a successful Biotron as we really can't stab at the partnership deal yet. Efficacy and cash position will determine the details of the partnership, and we don't know either. Will the deal be structured around equity or rights over certain markets? Johnson and Johnson hold the European rights to Telaprevir. The one factor we do have some influence over as shareholders is cash position.

I recently emailed management to express my support for a pro-rata capital raising upon successful trials. A decent bank balance will remove the barrel over which Biotron would be bent if they go into negotiations with their pockets empty. The case that I have made previously is that a well-timed and structured rights issue will induce option holders into converting early, further fortifying the bank balance.

Upon further consideration, I have decided to exercise my options early, pending encouraging phase IIb results. This will be give the company more than enough time to position themselves for a decent capital raising preceding partnership negotiations and phase III hep C/phase II HIV trials.


Cheers

Tawny