Blueys already told us the second half isn't looking good. That...

Blueys already told us the second half isn't looking good. That was before the AUD stormed above 80c.

When the results came out in Feb Kirby told us that the 2nd half would be lower than the 1st of NPAT $388m.

Factor in Kirbys general comments and say they were looking at 310m (being optimistic).

Since then the AUD has been sitting at 80c+. Now, Kirby has previously said that for each 1c AUD movement its an 18m effect.

So..... for the 1st half the AUD was in the range 74-76 cents - say average 75c. We are now almost 5.5c higher. The effect on the numbers would have to be a downgrade of 90mil!

So now we would be looking at a second half of 220m which is a long way south of the last results.

Just wonder if and when a downgrade will be coming. The chart today looks a lot like it did in Aug-Nov 2005 period before the downgrades started. Those downgrades took us from a double top down to 6ish bucks.

Just my own thoughts. Do your own maths and research.