Greetings from London. Arrived 36 hours ago. Cold, wet and 30mph winds that can blow a dog off a chain. But a great city none-the-less.
A few observations from this distance:
The announcement
Like others I enjoyed the speculation on the TH, the suspension and what it might portend for AVB. Given, as Kalenn pointed out, the only realistic possibility was in-fill drilling results, there were some brilliantly creative ideas. I was waiting for someone to suggest the discovery of an ancient alien artifact in the midst of the ore body.
I disagree with those who do not see this as great news. Given we are all about building a copper mine, the discovery at this stage of additional copper is important. Its even more important given the grade and location and the timing. It changes not just the economics of stage one but almost guarantees the all important finance. There were only ever two real risks associated with this project- the geological risk and the financial risk. Both have been substantially reduced in the past 24 hours. And reading between the lines, there is more good news to come.
Hence the subject line above. I think we are on the verge of becoming a different company which will slowly but inevitably be according re-rated by the market. This will happen not because of sentiment but because of the economics of this project. To those who have suggested that a mine will never be built, I would suggest that nothing can stop this mine being built. Someone will certainly build it and as long as we still own the company and control this tenement then it will be us (I.e. If we can avoid a TO this side of stage 3.)
The nay-sayers.
I also enjoyed the contributions of the downrampers. Characteristically brief - around two lines long, generally in the form of a question (CR on the way?), and devoid of any substance. Also fun to see how quick they are out of the blocks, in the hope of influencing sentiment. As noted above, sentiment is irrelevant to the long term trajectory of this stock, it's all about the economics stupid. So the small time retail shorters are playing a game that is irrelevant to me and other long term holders. They are essentially competing against each other and winning or losing at each others expense. So don't begrudge them during this Christmas season - thet too have families to feed and mortgages to pay. As many will fail as will succeed but it won't affect me either way.
The management.
Two observations. The first is that I expect to see board members start to buy AVB on market. Theoretically this could happen immediately as we are all now trading fully informed. In practice I expect them to wait until assay results come in - just in case they are as good as I believe they will be (after all they have had the slight advantage of physically seeing the cores). Watch this space - these are smart folk who know this company better than any of us.
Secondly, I want to say that they have handled this process immaculately. They have been quick to commence infill drilling, and quick to get information out to the market. And all done with a careful eye towards dealing fairly with us retail investors. Couldn't be happier. Post-AGM our complaints are being addressed; promises are being kept. I love it.
Cheetah (with glass of fine white burgundy in hand)
AVB Price at posting:
6.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
