Flem - you have really fleshed me out here..... I very much disagree with your strategy, I don't think you can set and forget investments particularly in the stock market - even if you consider you are working on financial valuations..... and that's advice from the best !.... .. and with CFD'S you still have to make a profit over and above the approximate interest of the 5% you are paying......
I have to say that you do command some respect though, the way you held on to HVN while its price increased significantly.... and then the price reversed down and you were seriously in the money..... but you did not sell them then, and my guess is that you might be at not much better off than break even at this point at this time.....
We are in generally in agreement on the outlook on the retailers though.....
The holding of shorts for a long period of time seems to be predicated on an aussie market crash in the not too distant future......This is how i saw things 6 months ago, particularly after reading prof. Ross garnaut’s recent book “dog days” and reading and believing all the negative views in “macrobusiness”..... but the market does not agree with this, and there is no way you can win betting against the market ....
While I agree that there will definitely be some harder times ahead in aus. it seems to me the effects of the structural shift will take quite a good bit of time to seep through....
In the last couple of days i have been trying to make some sense out of all of this also...
Looking at the major markets which influence our market – the S& P 500, the nikki, and the Shanghai composite have been (over the last two months) in upward trend, and on average at mid point on their upward leg – unlike our market which is slightly out of sync and at the top of its current trading range.....(maybe that suggests that our market might go up a bit further on this leg ?) With real interest rates in the US being at zero, and real interest rates in Europe and japan being negative i can not see any immediate reason for the world markets to take a dive.
Likewise the Melbourne age (fairfax) at the weekend carried out its very comprehensive annual economic survey of 25 market economists, academic economists, and consultants the average forecast for the ASX 200 is for dec. 2014 - 5676, and for june 2015 - 5805 - no big crash forecast there either ...
This little burst is just my just view point, and i am sure that others might have some totally different, and equally convincing view points...... it would be interesting to hear them...
Its good to know that we still have john risk listening in and still prepared to offer his advice.... I would be interested as to what he thinks about trading in this sideways trending market which has driven us all crazy..
