a dynamic cocktail for house prices, page-34

The truth is nobody knows. You can make a case for bears and bulls.

In December I believed prices would not go lower and I wanted to buy, but procrastinated. Then a lot of the stock that had been on the local market moved, and the new property coming on was well priced but sold quickly. It gave my local market (SE QLD a bit of a shove and its holding for now. I decided to wait, I still own half my own home so not rushing.

But ..... now .....

China is moving from growth to consumption driven, that will hurt a lot of our economy but mainly mining, which many forget is the only thing that pulled us out of recession and created jobs. Just last week, some analysts and commentators are using the R word again, leading to a very strong rebuke from government. Touched a nerve?

US growth undershot badly on their expectations. Instead of letting their bubble deflate, they created more bubbles to protect the bubble, and when those bubbles looked like popping they created more. One day, it has to pop, and if not pop, very rapidly deflate. It will hurt the globe. And when it does those with liquidity will emerge the stronger.

Employment is the key in this property debate. Whoever picks that, will win the bull vs bear debate.

I am happy to hold, build equity in my family home and will look to sell towards end of 2013 on the back of some month on month growth. I want to be almost 100% cash by the end of this year prepared for whatever 2014 throws at us. I think 2014 will be the year the bull or the bear wins.