a fantastic short., page-28

re takeover potential....i believe amro's prediction is definately in the right sector , however i believe it would more likely be a generic drug company than csl.......'big pharma' is drying up and the real growth comes from the generics side....80 billion [yes thats right] worth of drugs come of patent over the next 2-3 years worldwide and 2 billion in australia.......aggregate pharmaceutical sales were declining on originator molucules after experiencing double digit growth through the 80's and 90's . Generic companies especially in india are desperate to grow their businesses in new countries [ranbaxy , cipla and dr reddy's]...just have a look at the t/overs and aq list over the last 2 years [like no other sector] Then there is the case that big pharma may need their own generic arm to stay viable ......interesting to see who gets swallowed up over the next year or two