Yeah I would like to think CTP might be worth around $1.50/GJ,...

Yeah I would like to think CTP might be worth around $1.50/GJ, but it's hard to know without the numbers.

Like I said I use around $1/GJ as a starting point and then adjust from there. One of the things I have noticed is that due to discount factor and the whole NPV process, it never seems to deviate too far from that number no matter what you do. So if a standard gas project is worth $1/GJ, a super profitable project might be worth $2 while a marginal project might be 50c/GJ.

CTP benefits from what should be high gas prices and a fair bit of existing field infrastructure such as wells and facilities, but has the challenges of remoteness from market and the fact that future wells are going to be targeting increasingly tight reservoir. Also, because it's a small company and fairly small project, its valuation is more volatile to things like debt costs and capex blowouts - a capex blowout that would be insignificant to a major can really destroy your ROR when you're only dealing with a hundred PJs or so, because you have less gas on which to make up that shortfall. As such there is a fair bit more uncertainty around it than there is around something like Kipper.

I do petroleum economics calculations like this all the time but I usually have a pretty good idea of capex, opex and sales price, which I don't really in this case. But as a gut feeling I think if all goes well, $1.50/GJ is about right.