Hi ValGreat post! I have to say it's refreshing to see others...

Hi Val

Great post! I have to say it's refreshing to see others look at Biota from an earnings perspective. Too many are just focused on charts and news.

One small point to add is that Biota could receive large upfront payments for HRV and LANI along with milestones for others like RSV.

Looking at the LANI compound in particular, it's intersting to note that the 7% royalty for Relenza was struck in preclinical trials. In the current environment a drug which passes phase III can get a much higher rate, you don't have to look far to see 30% or so may be reasonable.

Upfront payments reward companies for taking on the risk of clinical trials. A new drug with patent protection which can be expected to gain significant market share in a "blockbuster" market (>USD1bn in sales) and passes phase III can attract billion dollar upfront/milestone packages. Check out some recent deals. However neuraminidase inhibitors are mega-blockbuster drugs... multi-billion market. Up till now Tamiflu has excelled in market share but a compound like LANI can become very successful.

Of course, any deal for LANI would have to be split with DS but the effect on stock could be huge.

All above is pure speculation. Please dyor.