I am assuming 2 things - - that Togo is worth $1/share to BMB -...

I am assuming 2 things -
- that Togo is worth $1/share to BMB
- BMB are still a 1 in 3 chance to get the tender.

At the moment at around 10 cents the odds are saying BMB is a 1 in 10 chance (or 9 to 1 in betting lingo) to get the tender.

But if the true odds are 2 to 1, a punter would bet this up to a share price of 33 cents knowing he is getting good value about his bet. Any gambler would think the current share price is a steal

So forgetting ALL the fundamentals of the stock, BMB is well worth a punt just on the chance of getting the Togo tender.
(NB. as long as my assumptions are correct)