@JT4I am not sure that charts are all that useful when you are in a SPP cycle. My experience over a number of these events is that they start with two distinct patterns which guides trading over the next couple of weeks until all the shares have been allocated to the retail holders.
1 Where the market is unconvinced of the acquisition that the funding is for then the share price will quite often drift back to the SPP price, this can also be expedited if there is a large discount applied to the CR. This is what people normal expect happens. But this is not the case with EML this time.
2 Where the market believes the acquisition will be positive to the company then you normally see an appreciation in the share price until it finds a temporary consensus share price, as with EML in this case.
So in scenario 2, EML SPP, you then find after the initial buying that you get some selling about 2 weeks out from the closing date for the SPP as investors may decide to sell some of their holdings in order to fund the SPP. So typically that selling will normally be completed by today or Monday at the very latest to allow for T+2 clearance of funds and then the Bpay for the shares.
The institutional shares, as part of the CR, have quite often been allocated by this point in time and their maybe some institutional sellers who will sell all or part of the new shares for a quick $. It would be quite tempting with the purchase price @ $3.55 and an on market trade around $4.40 ish, nice quick profit.
I would expect the share price to bounce around at these levels ($4.10 to $4.40) until the allocation of shares to retail holders about the 6 December. This is assuming that there are no external impacts, either good or bad, new info from the company that makes the acquisition look more attractive or a negative announcement, which can include general share market panic where people just hit the sell button, even though the metrics of the company may still remain compelling.
So after the retail allocation, I would not be surprised if a number of traders sold down their allocations to realise a quick profit and move on to another target, how much they may depress the share price is hard to tell. This maybe your first window IMO.
So whilst I personally, put no stock in charts, this maybe when you can start to look for whatever your buy signals might be but you will have a reduced window to monitor as Xmas is not far off and funds will look to balance their holdings across the board before the 31 December and realise some of their profits.
Just my thoughts, feel free to correct me anyone.
Regards
Rayda
(20min delay)