Interesting points. I'm not sure I grasp the argument for reduced margins.
Looking at Commsec's data :
Estimates of 2015 and 2016; EPS is 134 and 127, DPS is 112 and 107.
Sector PE around 10, thus crudely, an SP of $12 would be not unreasonable. Yield at an SP of $12 and EPS of 107 is around 9% ..still a tad on the high side. And in a dividend hungry world, may push SP up to $16 to reflect a yield of 6%.
It will be interesting to see if the SP runs up to $14 or $16 in the next 12 months.
Of course using those ratios and analysts forward estimates is primitive, there's still a lot of water to flow under that bridge before December 2017.
a great stock, page-102
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